Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption.

In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary’s incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry….

[T]he Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies [was tasked] with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies.

The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers.

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